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S.A.S. Dragon Holdings Limited (1184.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$129.93 - $285.11$267.19
Multi-Stage$43.32 - $47.39$45.32
Blended Fair Value$156.25
Current Price$4.07
Upside3,739.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.87%10.52%0.400.350.400.320.210.200.200.160.080.11
YoY Growth--14.29%-12.50%26.98%46.51%7.50%-0.99%24.14%103.90%-30.43%-22.03%
Dividend Yield--9.57%10.00%10.53%6.06%7.17%7.58%8.56%6.26%5.02%7.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)897.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)469.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)427.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)179.44112.1567.29
Cash Retained (M)427.83427.83427.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-179.44-112.15-67.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)248.39315.68360.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)625.84625.84625.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.500.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.500.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.251.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$129.93$267.19$285.11
Upside / Downside3,092.29%6,464.87%6,905.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)897.21955.531,017.641,083.781,154.231,229.261,266.13
Payout Ratio52.32%59.85%67.39%74.93%82.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)469.38571.91685.78812.04951.811,106.331,171.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)532.30537.35542.39
Year 2 PV (M)594.09605.40616.83
Year 3 PV (M)654.75673.55692.70
Year 4 PV (M)714.31741.78770.03
Year 5 PV (M)772.77810.10848.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,841.4924,993.0426,188.67
Equity Value (M)27,109.7128,361.2229,659.47
Shares Outstanding (M)625.84625.84625.84
Fair Value$43.32$45.32$47.39
Upside / Downside964.31%1,013.45%1,064.41%

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