Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Golik Holdings Limited (1118.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.47 - $23.90$15.25
Multi-Stage$13.82 - $15.18$14.49
Blended Fair Value$14.87
Current Price$0.98
Upside1,417.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS60.23%3.61%0.060.060.100.060.020.010.040.040.050.05
YoY Growth--9.09%-45.00%81.82%174.99%252.07%-85.48%-11.11%-10.00%0.00%16.28%
Dividend Yield--7.23%7.86%12.20%5.29%2.99%0.98%5.44%4.49%5.15%5.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)304.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)238.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.9038.0622.84
Cash Retained (M)238.45238.45238.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.90-38.06-22.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)177.55200.38215.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)574.38574.38574.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.21%3.21%4.21%
Fair Value$10.47$15.25$23.90
Upside / Downside968.83%1,456.60%2,338.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)304.50314.28324.36334.78345.52356.62367.32
Payout Ratio21.69%35.35%49.02%62.68%76.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.05111.11158.99209.83263.77320.96339.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.21%3.21%4.21%
Year 1 PV (M)103.46104.48105.49
Year 2 PV (M)137.86140.57143.31
Year 3 PV (M)169.43174.45179.57
Year 4 PV (M)198.33206.20214.31
Year 5 PV (M)224.72235.93247.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,104.037,458.427,826.81
Equity Value (M)7,937.838,320.058,717.07
Shares Outstanding (M)574.38574.38574.38
Fair Value$13.82$14.49$15.18
Upside / Downside1,310.19%1,378.09%1,448.63%

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