Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

China Resources Land Limited (1109.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,025.53 - $1,677.74$1,572.29
Multi-Stage$271.81 - $297.60$284.47
Blended Fair Value$928.38
Current Price$26.60
Upside3,390.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.03%17.26%1.441.481.461.251.091.080.820.600.500.40
YoY Growth---2.79%1.92%16.55%14.77%1.12%31.66%36.63%18.73%24.73%37.70%
Dividend Yield--6.39%5.60%4.07%3.81%3.40%2.77%2.72%2.52%2.89%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60,157.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,921.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)38,236.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12,031.577,519.734,511.84
Cash Retained (M)38,236.7738,236.7738,236.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-12,031.57-7,519.73-4,511.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)26,205.2030,717.0433,724.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,130.947,130.947,130.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.674.314.73
LTM Dividend per Share3.073.073.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.674.314.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.757.387.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,025.53$1,572.29$1,677.74
Upside / Downside3,755.38%5,810.87%6,207.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60,157.8564,068.1168,232.5372,667.6577,391.0582,421.4684,894.11
Payout Ratio36.44%47.15%57.86%68.58%79.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,921.0830,209.0239,481.7749,832.3561,361.7074,179.3278,527.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)28,179.8328,446.9328,714.04
Year 2 PV (M)34,355.8035,010.1835,670.73
Year 3 PV (M)40,449.8141,610.9842,794.16
Year 4 PV (M)46,462.6748,249.4950,087.36
Year 5 PV (M)52,395.1854,925.8857,553.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,736,416.081,820,285.631,907,365.06
Equity Value (M)1,938,259.362,028,529.102,122,184.80
Shares Outstanding (M)7,130.947,130.947,130.94
Fair Value$271.81$284.47$297.60
Upside / Downside921.84%969.43%1,018.81%

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