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Definitive Analysis

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Mainland Headwear Holdings Limited (1100.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.81 - $78.12$73.21
Multi-Stage$11.52 - $12.61$12.05
Blended Fair Value$42.63
Current Price$1.40
Upside2,945.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.77%17.09%0.090.090.090.060.050.050.050.050.040.03
YoY Growth--0.13%3.96%52.57%20.00%0.00%0.00%0.05%27.04%33.33%50.00%
Dividend Yield--5.58%4.96%4.56%3.68%5.66%5.18%4.46%3.50%2.23%2.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)169.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)96.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.9721.2312.74
Cash Retained (M)96.9196.9196.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.97-21.23-12.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.9375.6784.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.43432.43432.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.81$73.21$78.12
Upside / Downside2,243.92%5,129.33%5,480.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)169.87180.91192.67205.19218.53232.73239.71
Payout Ratio42.95%52.36%61.77%71.18%80.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.9694.72119.01146.05176.11209.46221.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)88.1088.9389.77
Year 2 PV (M)102.95104.91106.89
Year 3 PV (M)117.50120.88124.31
Year 4 PV (M)131.77136.84142.05
Year 5 PV (M)145.76152.81160.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,395.854,608.174,828.62
Equity Value (M)4,981.935,212.535,451.75
Shares Outstanding (M)432.43432.43432.43
Fair Value$11.52$12.05$12.61
Upside / Downside722.91%761.00%800.51%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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