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Definitive Analysis

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Harley-Davidson, Inc. (0QYY.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - Recreational VehiclesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.79 - $31.59$27.21
Multi-Stage$43.42 - $47.87$45.60
Blended Fair Value$36.41
Current Price$27.90
Upside30.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.40%-9.16%0.740.780.750.750.551.911.982.032.032.01
YoY Growth---5.28%3.36%0.82%35.75%-71.30%-3.49%-2.40%-0.18%1.23%4.60%
Dividend Yield--2.91%1.78%1.98%1.91%1.50%10.67%5.36%4.83%3.38%4.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)501.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)413.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.2362.6437.59
Cash Retained (M)413.09413.09413.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.23-62.64-37.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)312.86350.45375.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.03124.03124.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.522.833.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.522.833.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.233.543.74
WACC / Discount Rate8.58%8.58%8.58%
Growth Rate-4.90%-3.90%-2.90%
Fair Value$22.79$27.21$31.59
Upside / Downside-18.31%-2.48%13.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)501.15481.58462.79444.72427.36410.68423.00
Payout Ratio17.57%32.06%46.54%61.03%75.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.06154.38215.39271.41322.72369.61391.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.58%8.58%8.58%
Growth Rate-4.90%-3.90%-2.90%
Year 1 PV (M)140.70142.18143.66
Year 2 PV (M)178.90182.69186.51
Year 3 PV (M)205.45212.00218.68
Year 4 PV (M)222.64232.15241.96
Year 5 PV (M)232.39244.86257.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,405.904,642.474,889.11
Equity Value (M)5,385.975,656.355,937.79
Shares Outstanding (M)124.03124.03124.03
Fair Value$43.42$45.60$47.87
Upside / Downside55.64%63.46%71.59%

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