Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Julius Bär Gruppe AG (0QO6.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65.81 - $131.48$91.42
Multi-Stage$87.84 - $96.06$91.87
Blended Fair Value$91.65
Current Price$56.75
Upside61.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.79%14.93%2.612.612.701.881.611.631.521.311.201.09
YoY Growth--0.00%-3.34%43.62%16.27%-1.16%7.15%16.64%9.10%10.01%68.02%
Dividend Yield--0.00%4.59%4.99%3.05%3.16%3.26%4.36%2.19%2.61%2.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)806.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)803.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)161.38100.8660.52
Cash Retained (M)3.503.503.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-161.38-100.86-60.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)-157.88-97.36-57.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)205.60205.60205.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.77-0.47-0.28
LTM Dividend per Share3.913.913.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.77-0.47-0.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.143.433.63
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate2.25%3.25%4.25%
Fair Value$65.81$91.42$131.48
Upside / Downside15.96%61.09%131.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)806.90833.12860.18888.13916.98946.78975.18
Payout Ratio99.57%97.65%95.74%93.83%91.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)803.40813.56823.54833.30842.83852.10902.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate2.25%3.25%4.25%
Year 1 PV (M)752.08759.44766.79
Year 2 PV (M)703.77717.60731.57
Year 3 PV (M)658.30677.80697.69
Year 4 PV (M)615.51639.94665.09
Year 5 PV (M)575.25603.93633.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,754.4915,490.2416,255.06
Equity Value (M)18,059.3918,888.9519,749.95
Shares Outstanding (M)205.60205.60205.60
Fair Value$87.84$91.87$96.06
Upside / Downside54.78%61.89%69.27%

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