Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xcel Energy Inc. (0M1R.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: General UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$141.46 - $650.31$320.55
Multi-Stage$100.12 - $109.61$104.78
Blended Fair Value$212.66
Current Price$80.65
Upside163.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.24%7.67%2.031.891.751.611.481.371.261.241.171.05
YoY Growth--7.60%7.91%8.24%9.23%8.22%8.36%1.25%5.95%12.19%8.04%
Dividend Yield--2.87%3.54%2.59%2.24%2.22%2.26%2.27%2.74%2.64%2.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,915.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,258.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)657.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)383.00239.38143.63
Cash Retained (M)657.00657.00657.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-383.00-239.38-143.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)274.00417.63513.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)579.25579.25579.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.720.89
LTM Dividend per Share2.172.172.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.720.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.642.893.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate4.33%5.33%6.33%
Fair Value$141.46$320.55$650.31
Upside / Downside75.40%297.46%706.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,915.002,017.022,124.472,237.652,356.862,482.422,556.89
Payout Ratio65.69%70.55%75.42%80.28%85.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,258.001,423.081,602.171,796.312,006.592,234.182,365.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate4.33%5.33%6.33%
Year 1 PV (M)1,326.301,339.021,351.73
Year 2 PV (M)1,391.681,418.481,445.55
Year 3 PV (M)1,454.201,496.421,539.45
Year 4 PV (M)1,513.961,572.851,633.44
Year 5 PV (M)1,571.041,647.801,727.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,738.0953,216.8355,791.52
Equity Value (M)57,995.2860,691.4063,489.20
Shares Outstanding (M)579.25579.25579.25
Fair Value$100.12$104.78$109.61
Upside / Downside24.14%29.91%35.90%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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