Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Norfolk Southern Corporation (0K8M.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: General TransportationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$125.80 - $195.50$158.02
Multi-Stage$213.16 - $234.04$223.40
Blended Fair Value$190.71
Current Price$300.41
Upside-36.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.17%5.92%5.415.435.174.564.254.213.743.123.083.16
YoY Growth---0.33%4.97%13.52%7.08%1.16%12.44%20.06%1.15%-2.52%3.78%
Dividend Yield--2.28%2.15%2.44%1.60%1.58%2.88%1.93%2.29%2.75%3.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,962.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,218.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,744.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)592.40370.25222.15
Cash Retained (M)1,744.001,744.001,744.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-592.40-370.25-222.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,151.601,373.751,521.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)225.68225.68225.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.106.096.74
LTM Dividend per Share5.405.405.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.106.096.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.5011.4812.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.72%7.72%7.72%
Growth Rate-0.58%0.42%1.42%
Fair Value$125.80$158.02$195.50
Upside / Downside-58.12%-47.40%-34.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,962.002,974.532,987.122,999.763,012.453,025.203,115.96
Payout Ratio41.12%50.90%60.67%70.45%80.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,218.001,513.941,812.362,113.282,416.722,722.682,882.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.72%7.72%7.72%
Growth Rate-0.58%0.42%1.42%
Year 1 PV (M)1,391.421,405.421,419.41
Year 2 PV (M)1,530.901,561.851,593.11
Year 3 PV (M)1,640.631,690.641,741.65
Year 4 PV (M)1,724.371,794.801,867.36
Year 5 PV (M)1,785.471,877.091,972.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,032.1142,086.2344,223.83
Equity Value (M)48,104.9050,416.0352,817.79
Shares Outstanding (M)225.68225.68225.68
Fair Value$213.16$223.40$234.04
Upside / Downside-29.04%-25.63%-22.09%

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