Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (0JQQ.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.71 - $115.43$72.83
Multi-Stage$61.21 - $67.01$64.05
Blended Fair Value$68.44
Current Price$59.74
Upside14.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.54%4.67%2.042.021.861.721.671.631.571.511.451.42
YoY Growth--0.82%8.68%7.79%3.09%2.53%4.09%3.84%4.14%2.04%10.10%
Dividend Yield--4.24%3.24%2.33%1.91%2.93%4.64%3.67%3.48%3.15%3.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,189.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)984.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)205.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)237.80148.6389.18
Cash Retained (M)205.00205.00205.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-237.80-148.63-89.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)-32.8056.38115.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)483.75483.75483.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.120.24
LTM Dividend per Share2.032.032.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.120.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.972.152.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate2.67%3.67%4.67%
Fair Value$49.71$72.83$115.43
Upside / Downside-16.80%21.90%93.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,189.001,232.641,277.891,324.801,373.431,423.841,466.56
Payout Ratio82.76%84.21%85.66%87.10%88.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)984.001,037.971,094.581,153.951,216.191,281.461,356.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate2.67%3.67%4.67%
Year 1 PV (M)963.12972.50981.88
Year 2 PV (M)942.40960.85979.48
Year 3 PV (M)921.87949.07976.80
Year 4 PV (M)901.53937.17973.86
Year 5 PV (M)881.41925.18970.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,000.2726,241.7227,532.00
Equity Value (M)29,610.6130,986.5032,414.69
Shares Outstanding (M)483.75483.75483.75
Fair Value$61.21$64.05$67.01
Upside / Downside2.46%7.22%12.16%

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