Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

W.W. Grainger, Inc. (0IZI.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$764.60 - $1,858.67$1,137.30
Multi-Stage$737.01 - $807.45$771.58
Blended Fair Value$954.44
Current Price$948.91
Upside0.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.12%3.88%8.728.127.667.397.006.796.546.296.276.35
YoY Growth--7.40%5.95%3.64%5.62%3.05%3.80%3.95%0.34%-1.14%6.52%
Dividend Yield--0.89%0.81%1.13%1.41%1.76%2.88%2.13%2.27%3.43%3.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,730.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)458.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,272.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)346.00216.25129.75
Cash Retained (M)1,272.001,272.001,272.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-346.00-216.25-129.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)926.001,055.751,142.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.3048.3048.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share19.1721.8623.65
LTM Dividend per Share9.489.489.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share19.1721.8623.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend28.6531.3433.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.47%7.47%7.47%
Growth Rate3.59%4.59%5.59%
Fair Value$764.60$1,137.30$1,858.67
Upside / Downside-19.42%19.85%95.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,730.001,809.411,892.471,979.352,070.212,165.242,230.19
Payout Ratio26.47%39.18%51.88%64.59%77.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)458.00708.91981.901,278.451,600.161,948.712,062.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.47%7.47%7.47%
Growth Rate3.59%4.59%5.59%
Year 1 PV (M)653.32659.62665.93
Year 2 PV (M)833.92850.10866.44
Year 3 PV (M)1,000.631,029.891,059.71
Year 4 PV (M)1,154.211,199.421,245.96
Year 5 PV (M)1,295.381,359.121,425.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,660.2032,168.9233,736.46
Equity Value (M)35,597.6637,267.0838,999.85
Shares Outstanding (M)48.3048.3048.30
Fair Value$737.01$771.58$807.45
Upside / Downside-22.33%-18.69%-14.91%

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