Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Comerica Incorporated (0I1P.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BanksSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.62 - $176.65$123.87
Multi-Stage$90.76 - $99.20$94.90
Blended Fair Value$109.38
Current Price$68.52
Upside59.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.28%10.65%2.832.782.652.772.813.021.971.351.141.10
YoY Growth--1.62%5.10%-4.34%-1.60%-6.72%52.85%46.11%18.42%3.40%7.30%
Dividend Yield--4.79%5.15%6.10%3.06%3.92%10.28%2.59%1.41%1.66%2.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)717.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)375.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)342.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)143.4089.6353.78
Cash Retained (M)342.00342.00342.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-143.40-89.63-53.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)198.60252.38288.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)133.25133.25133.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.491.892.16
LTM Dividend per Share2.812.812.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.491.892.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.304.714.98
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate3.55%4.55%5.55%
Fair Value$89.62$123.87$176.65
Upside / Downside30.79%80.77%157.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)717.00749.63783.75819.43856.72895.72922.59
Payout Ratio52.30%59.84%67.38%74.92%82.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)375.00448.59528.10613.92706.46806.15853.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate3.55%4.55%5.55%
Year 1 PV (M)409.39413.35417.30
Year 2 PV (M)439.85448.39457.00
Year 3 PV (M)466.65480.30494.22
Year 4 PV (M)490.07509.28529.05
Year 5 PV (M)510.37535.49561.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,777.7210,259.0410,759.14
Equity Value (M)12,094.0512,645.8513,218.30
Shares Outstanding (M)133.25133.25133.25
Fair Value$90.76$94.90$99.20
Upside / Downside32.46%38.50%44.77%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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