Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited (0968.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SolarSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.63 - $102.48$68.87
Multi-Stage$12.81 - $14.00$13.39
Blended Fair Value$41.13
Current Price$2.27
Upside1,712.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.38%23.76%0.190.170.200.230.050.070.070.120.090.05
YoY Growth--8.14%-12.43%-12.28%357.08%-30.62%-0.20%-38.34%23.20%94.25%117.27%
Dividend Yield--5.98%3.81%2.30%1.71%0.24%1.29%2.60%3.79%3.76%1.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,621.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,242.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,378.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)924.20577.63346.58
Cash Retained (M)1,378.151,378.151,378.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-924.20-577.63-346.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)453.94800.521,031.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,967.678,967.678,967.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.090.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.090.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate7.20%7.20%7.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.63$68.87$102.48
Upside / Downside1,028.86%2,934.07%4,414.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,621.024,921.395,241.285,581.965,944.796,331.206,521.14
Payout Ratio70.18%74.14%78.11%82.07%86.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,242.883,648.784,093.754,581.155,114.625,698.086,032.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.20%7.20%7.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,371.843,403.803,435.76
Year 2 PV (M)3,495.913,562.503,629.71
Year 3 PV (M)3,615.203,718.983,824.73
Year 4 PV (M)3,729.853,873.284,020.82
Year 5 PV (M)3,839.954,025.424,217.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)96,850.33101,528.23106,385.18
Equity Value (M)114,903.08120,112.22125,514.19
Shares Outstanding (M)8,967.678,967.678,967.67
Fair Value$12.81$13.39$14.00
Upside / Downside464.45%490.04%516.58%

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