Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited (0881.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$132.73 - $506.94$382.61
Multi-Stage$64.38 - $70.34$67.31
Blended Fair Value$224.96
Current Price$11.04
Upside1,937.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.62%23.86%0.710.970.710.460.380.300.270.230.040.06
YoY Growth---26.96%37.40%55.27%19.36%26.25%10.71%18.89%522.50%-39.97%-26.42%
Dividend Yield--5.41%5.74%1.99%0.92%0.82%1.06%2.00%1.55%0.59%1.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,232.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,109.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,123.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,246.58779.11467.47
Cash Retained (M)2,123.362,123.362,123.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,246.58-779.11-467.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)876.781,344.251,655.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,445.222,445.222,445.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.550.68
LTM Dividend per Share1.681.681.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.550.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.042.232.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$132.73$382.61$506.94
Upside / Downside1,102.28%3,365.64%4,491.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,232.916,638.057,069.527,529.048,018.438,539.638,795.81
Payout Ratio65.93%70.75%75.56%80.37%85.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,109.554,696.185,341.726,051.336,830.637,685.668,136.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,342.844,384.014,425.17
Year 2 PV (M)4,568.134,655.144,742.97
Year 3 PV (M)4,785.614,922.995,062.97
Year 4 PV (M)4,995.475,187.585,385.18
Year 5 PV (M)5,197.875,448.935,709.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)133,529.31139,978.83146,675.18
Equity Value (M)157,419.24164,577.48172,001.08
Shares Outstanding (M)2,445.222,445.222,445.22
Fair Value$64.38$67.31$70.34
Upside / Downside483.14%509.66%537.15%

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