Definitive Analysis
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Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited (0868.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$192.04 - $369.37$346.16
Multi-Stage$57.57 - $63.03$60.25
Blended Fair Value$203.20
Current Price$6.88
Upside2,853.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.86%8.27%0.470.220.861.220.440.490.500.400.310.14
YoY Growth--113.80%-74.44%-29.48%173.78%-9.20%-1.87%23.42%30.29%117.25%-32.62%
Dividend Yield--5.94%2.50%5.90%6.24%2.05%4.74%5.76%3.73%4.89%3.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,912.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,929.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,982.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,582.47989.04593.43
Cash Retained (M)4,982.564,982.564,982.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,582.47-989.04-593.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,400.093,993.514,389.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,260.124,260.124,260.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.800.941.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.690.690.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.800.941.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.491.631.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$192.04$346.16$369.37
Upside / Downside2,691.28%4,931.34%5,268.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,912.368,426.668,974.399,557.7310,178.9810,840.6111,165.83
Payout Ratio37.03%47.62%58.22%68.81%79.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,929.804,012.995,224.616,576.798,082.689,756.5510,328.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,739.133,774.573,810.02
Year 2 PV (M)4,535.874,622.264,709.47
Year 3 PV (M)5,320.155,472.875,628.48
Year 4 PV (M)6,092.116,326.406,567.38
Year 5 PV (M)6,851.927,182.877,526.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)218,725.02229,289.52240,258.35
Equity Value (M)245,264.19256,668.49268,500.18
Shares Outstanding (M)4,260.124,260.124,260.12
Fair Value$57.57$60.25$63.03
Upside / Downside736.80%775.71%816.08%

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