Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

China Water Affairs Group Limited (0855.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.18 - $214.94$107.94
Multi-Stage$32.53 - $35.62$34.05
Blended Fair Value$70.99
Current Price$6.70
Upside959.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.02%18.29%0.280.340.180.320.300.290.270.230.080.07
YoY Growth---17.65%88.89%-43.75%6.14%2.27%10.77%13.39%184.33%26.64%24.86%
Dividend Yield--4.18%6.77%2.81%3.73%4.74%5.07%3.26%2.94%1.61%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,782.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,012.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)770.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)356.46222.79133.67
Cash Retained (M)770.27770.27770.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-356.46-222.79-133.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)413.81547.48636.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,632.061,632.061,632.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.961.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Fair Value$47.18$107.94$214.94
Upside / Downside604.20%1,511.06%3,108.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,782.311,878.351,979.572,086.252,198.672,317.152,386.66
Payout Ratio56.78%63.43%70.07%76.71%83.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,012.041,191.361,387.081,600.421,832.732,085.432,207.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)1,109.901,120.531,131.16
Year 2 PV (M)1,203.861,227.031,250.43
Year 3 PV (M)1,294.041,331.591,369.85
Year 4 PV (M)1,380.541,434.211,489.42
Year 5 PV (M)1,463.471,534.931,609.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,640.6348,917.8351,283.12
Equity Value (M)53,092.4455,566.1158,133.13
Shares Outstanding (M)1,632.061,632.061,632.06
Fair Value$32.53$34.05$35.62
Upside / Downside385.54%408.16%431.63%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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