Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Resources Power Holdings Company Limited (0836.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$545.02 - $1,071.61$1,004.26
Multi-Stage$166.60 - $182.35$174.33
Blended Fair Value$589.30
Current Price$18.94
Upside3,011.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.93%8.06%1.570.690.250.640.560.390.850.850.850.75
YoY Growth--128.78%176.09%-61.13%14.48%42.20%-53.69%-0.01%0.23%13.16%3.46%
Dividend Yield--8.33%4.34%1.56%2.46%6.70%3.60%5.64%5.83%6.89%4.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26,523.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,131.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,392.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,304.753,315.471,989.28
Cash Retained (M)15,392.2415,392.2415,392.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,304.75-3,315.47-1,989.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,087.4912,076.7713,402.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,922.414,922.414,922.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.052.452.72
LTM Dividend per Share2.262.262.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.052.452.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.314.714.98
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$545.02$1,004.26$1,071.61
Upside / Downside2,777.60%5,202.31%5,557.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26,523.7728,247.8130,083.9232,039.3834,121.9436,339.8637,430.06
Payout Ratio41.97%51.57%61.18%70.79%80.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,131.5214,568.6618,405.6022,679.7927,431.8632,705.8734,622.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13,572.1513,700.8013,829.44
Year 2 PV (M)15,973.7916,278.0516,585.17
Year 3 PV (M)18,336.9018,863.2919,399.65
Year 4 PV (M)20,661.9421,456.5422,273.84
Year 5 PV (M)22,949.3624,057.8225,208.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)728,593.82763,785.18800,323.39
Equity Value (M)820,087.96858,141.66897,620.19
Shares Outstanding (M)4,922.414,922.414,922.41
Fair Value$166.60$174.33$182.35
Upside / Downside779.64%820.45%862.80%

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