Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China State Construction Development Holdings Limited (0830.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.01 - $104.06$97.52
Multi-Stage$15.68 - $17.17$16.41
Blended Fair Value$56.96
Current Price$1.46
Upside3,801.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.78%26.72%0.100.080.060.060.000.020.020.090.010.01
YoY Growth--29.11%38.00%-0.16%0.00%-100.00%20.00%-77.73%541.55%27.27%10.00%
Dividend Yield--5.67%3.43%3.27%3.58%0.00%3.14%3.54%9.87%1.13%0.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,180.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)408.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)771.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)236.04147.5288.51
Cash Retained (M)771.92771.92771.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-236.04-147.52-88.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)535.89624.40683.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,255.542,255.542,255.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$48.01$97.52$104.06
Upside / Downside3,188.63%6,579.31%7,027.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,180.181,256.891,338.591,425.591,518.261,616.941,665.45
Payout Ratio34.59%45.67%56.76%67.84%78.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)408.25574.07759.72967.081,198.191,455.251,540.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)534.38539.44544.51
Year 2 PV (M)658.29670.83683.48
Year 3 PV (M)780.02802.41825.23
Year 4 PV (M)899.59934.19969.77
Year 5 PV (M)1,017.051,066.171,117.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,483.4433,004.1034,582.96
Equity Value (M)35,372.7637,017.1438,723.12
Shares Outstanding (M)2,255.542,255.542,255.54
Fair Value$15.68$16.41$17.17
Upside / Downside974.15%1,024.09%1,075.89%

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