Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Jinmao Property Services Co., Limited (0816.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.89 - $6.02$4.87
Multi-Stage$8.93 - $9.82$9.37
Blended Fair Value$7.12
Current Price$2.60
Upside173.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.230.180.110.010.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--31.10%59.48%1,800.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.62%8.81%3.06%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)377.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)208.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)169.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.5647.2228.33
Cash Retained (M)169.00169.00169.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.56-47.22-28.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)93.44121.78140.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)904.19904.19904.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.89$4.87$6.02
Upside / Downside49.54%87.48%131.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)377.78374.00370.26366.56362.89359.26370.04
Payout Ratio55.27%62.21%69.16%76.11%83.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)208.78232.67256.07278.97301.39323.34342.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)216.42218.63220.84
Year 2 PV (M)221.54226.09230.68
Year 3 PV (M)224.50231.44238.52
Year 4 PV (M)225.59234.94244.58
Year 5 PV (M)225.11236.83249.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,958.217,320.547,697.81
Equity Value (M)8,071.378,468.478,881.46
Shares Outstanding (M)904.19904.19904.19
Fair Value$8.93$9.37$9.82
Upside / Downside243.33%260.22%277.79%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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