Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (0688.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.55 - $53.30$43.26
Multi-Stage$83.87 - $92.41$88.06
Blended Fair Value$65.66
Current Price$13.62
Upside382.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.73%4.97%0.690.690.990.980.910.830.710.640.640.52
YoY Growth---0.89%-30.46%1.37%7.68%9.93%15.89%10.97%-0.06%24.55%22.67%
Dividend Yield--5.52%5.24%4.83%5.31%5.40%2.73%2.66%2.45%3.14%1.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41,170.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15,821.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)25,349.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,234.125,146.323,087.79
Cash Retained (M)25,349.2225,349.2225,349.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,234.12-5,146.32-3,087.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)17,115.1020,202.8922,261.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,944.8810,944.8810,944.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.561.852.03
LTM Dividend per Share1.451.451.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.561.852.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.013.293.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-2.31%-1.31%-0.31%
Fair Value$34.55$43.26$53.30
Upside / Downside153.68%217.63%291.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41,170.5840,629.6340,095.7939,568.9639,049.0638,535.9939,692.07
Payout Ratio38.43%48.74%59.06%69.37%79.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15,821.3619,804.1223,679.4827,449.5931,116.5434,682.3936,715.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-2.31%-1.31%-0.31%
Year 1 PV (M)18,459.9818,648.9518,837.92
Year 2 PV (M)20,574.2220,997.6121,425.31
Year 3 PV (M)22,231.1922,920.9423,624.81
Year 4 PV (M)23,490.5824,467.3425,474.24
Year 5 PV (M)24,405.4725,680.4927,008.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)808,815.83851,070.86895,073.75
Equity Value (M)917,977.28963,786.181,011,444.27
Shares Outstanding (M)10,944.8810,944.8810,944.88
Fair Value$83.87$88.06$92.41
Upside / Downside515.81%546.54%578.51%

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