Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SFA Engineering Corporation (056190.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,619.41 - $4,948.99$4,293.65
Multi-Stage$7,363.42 - $8,100.36$7,724.54
Blended Fair Value$6,009.09
Current Price$23,750.00
Upside-74.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.42%-3.92%406.93824.711,833.671,154.231,197.291,447.621,512.65661.26237.35384.95
YoY Growth---50.66%-55.02%58.87%-3.60%-17.29%-4.30%128.75%178.61%-38.34%-36.59%
Dividend Yield--1.92%3.10%4.67%2.81%2.95%4.63%3.45%1.91%0.66%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,838.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,804.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,034.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,167.792,604.871,562.92
Cash Retained (M)10,034.0910,034.0910,034.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,167.79-2,604.87-1,562.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,866.307,429.228,471.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29.5629.5629.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share198.49251.37286.62
LTM Dividend per Share365.59365.59365.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share198.49251.37286.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend564.07616.95652.21
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate-5.92%-4.92%-3.92%
Fair Value$3,619.41$4,293.65$4,948.99
Upside / Downside-84.76%-81.92%-79.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,838.9519,813.4618,838.4317,911.3917,029.9616,191.9116,677.67
Payout Ratio51.85%59.48%67.11%74.74%82.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,804.8711,784.9512,642.4013,386.9314,027.5614,572.7215,426.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate-5.92%-4.92%-3.92%
Year 1 PV (M)10,723.6610,837.6410,951.63
Year 2 PV (M)10,467.9210,691.6310,917.72
Year 3 PV (M)10,086.1910,411.2510,743.22
Year 4 PV (M)9,617.0910,032.5510,461.32
Year 5 PV (M)9,091.129,584.6710,099.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)167,639.97176,740.94186,232.94
Equity Value (M)217,625.94228,298.67239,406.25
Shares Outstanding (M)29.5629.5629.56
Fair Value$7,363.42$7,724.54$8,100.36
Upside / Downside-69.00%-67.48%-65.89%

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