Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dah Sing Financial Holdings Limited (0440.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.25 - $143.88$118.88
Multi-Stage$203.26 - $223.78$213.31
Blended Fair Value$166.09
Current Price$29.75
Upside458.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.51%7.24%2.551.171.061.001.351.481.488.321.351.33
YoY Growth--118.55%10.17%6.00%-25.93%-8.78%0.11%-82.26%516.28%1.57%4.96%
Dividend Yield--9.07%7.38%5.85%4.23%6.17%4.81%3.81%16.38%2.57%3.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,749.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,306.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,442.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)749.91468.69281.22
Cash Retained (M)2,442.802,442.802,442.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-749.91-468.69-281.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,692.901,974.112,161.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)320.16320.16320.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.296.176.75
LTM Dividend per Share4.084.084.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.296.176.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.3710.2510.83
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.46%-1.46%-0.46%
Fair Value$96.25$118.88$143.88
Upside / Downside223.54%299.58%383.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,749.543,694.813,640.883,587.733,535.363,483.763,588.27
Payout Ratio34.85%45.88%56.91%67.94%78.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,306.731,695.192,072.032,437.512,791.883,135.383,319.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.46%-1.46%-0.46%
Year 1 PV (M)1,567.701,583.781,599.85
Year 2 PV (M)1,772.091,808.611,845.51
Year 3 PV (M)1,927.881,987.792,048.92
Year 4 PV (M)2,042.092,127.132,214.80
Year 5 PV (M)2,120.872,231.842,347.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,643.5258,554.9461,586.97
Equity Value (M)65,074.1668,294.0971,643.46
Shares Outstanding (M)320.16320.16320.16
Fair Value$203.26$213.31$223.78
Upside / Downside583.21%617.02%652.19%

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