Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Minth Group Limited (0425.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$112.49 - $394.35$185.93
Multi-Stage$71.15 - $77.84$74.44
Blended Fair Value$130.18
Current Price$20.43
Upside537.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.520.540.480.600.580.690.590.450.39
YoY Growth---100.00%-2.12%11.90%-20.78%4.05%-16.03%17.57%29.90%15.51%14.36%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.78%2.87%1.71%1.79%2.37%3.12%1.48%2.10%3.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,611.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)460.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,151.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)922.36576.47345.88
Cash Retained (M)4,151.154,151.154,151.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-922.36-576.47-345.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,228.803,574.683,805.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,148.261,148.261,148.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.813.113.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.813.113.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.213.513.72
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Fair Value$112.49$185.93$394.35
Upside / Downside450.64%810.07%1,830.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,611.794,910.275,228.065,566.425,926.686,310.256,499.56
Payout Ratio9.99%25.99%41.99%58.00%74.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)460.641,276.212,195.423,228.264,385.605,679.236,012.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Year 1 PV (M)1,165.351,176.401,187.45
Year 2 PV (M)1,830.571,865.441,900.65
Year 3 PV (M)2,457.942,528.522,600.43
Year 4 PV (M)3,049.063,166.353,286.99
Year 5 PV (M)3,605.463,779.653,960.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,592.2472,954.4876,445.44
Equity Value (M)81,700.6185,470.8489,381.47
Shares Outstanding (M)1,148.261,148.261,148.26
Fair Value$71.15$74.44$77.84
Upside / Downside248.27%264.34%281.01%

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