Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hanatour Service Inc. (039130.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$291,392.93 - $872,088.77$817,274.89
Multi-Stage$120,438.56 - $131,702.30$125,967.47
Blended Fair Value$471,621.18
Current Price$50,200.00
Upside839.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS39.69%18.72%5,077.6317.8722.76191.90481.15954.561,171.681,101.651,089.251,038.36
YoY Growth--28,314.02%-21.47%-88.14%-60.12%-49.59%-18.53%6.36%1.14%4.90%13.75%
Dividend Yield--9.44%0.03%0.04%0.23%0.74%2.67%1.67%0.95%1.42%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)67,933.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37,487.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)30,445.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,586.618,491.635,094.98
Cash Retained (M)30,445.5130,445.5130,445.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,586.61-8,491.63-5,094.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)16,858.9021,953.8825,350.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.4915.4915.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,088.251,417.131,636.39
LTM Dividend per Share2,419.842,419.842,419.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,088.251,417.131,636.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend3,508.093,836.974,056.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$291,392.93$817,274.89$872,088.77
Upside / Downside480.46%1,528.04%1,637.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)67,933.0372,348.6877,051.3482,059.6887,393.5693,074.1495,866.36
Payout Ratio55.18%62.15%69.11%76.07%83.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37,487.5244,962.1353,250.0562,425.4472,568.6583,766.7288,676.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)41,715.7542,111.1642,506.57
Year 2 PV (M)45,838.0746,711.1647,592.48
Year 3 PV (M)49,856.4151,287.6152,745.94
Year 4 PV (M)53,772.6655,840.6157,967.63
Year 5 PV (M)57,588.6960,370.2463,258.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,617,032.441,695,135.711,776,228.18
Equity Value (M)1,865,804.021,951,456.482,040,299.05
Shares Outstanding (M)15.4915.4915.49
Fair Value$120,438.56$125,967.47$131,702.30
Upside / Downside139.92%150.93%162.36%

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