Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China Gas Holdings Limited (0384.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.57 - $215.52$70.41
Multi-Stage$32.82 - $35.91$34.34
Blended Fair Value$52.37
Current Price$7.62
Upside587.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.90%15.85%0.490.550.550.570.480.440.330.260.180.17
YoY Growth---11.82%-0.02%-2.29%17.40%8.67%35.11%27.72%45.85%1.24%55.58%
Dividend Yield--6.89%7.91%5.01%5.65%1.52%1.65%1.18%0.90%1.41%1.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,940.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,629.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)311.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,188.07742.54445.53
Cash Retained (M)311.12311.12311.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,188.07-742.54-445.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)-876.95-431.42-134.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,399.435,399.435,399.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.08-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.08-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Fair Value$37.57$70.41$215.52
Upside / Downside392.98%824.00%2,728.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,940.366,230.736,535.306,854.757,189.827,541.277,767.51
Payout Ratio94.76%93.81%92.86%91.91%90.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,629.245,845.056,068.526,299.866,539.326,787.147,184.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Year 1 PV (M)5,445.085,497.495,549.90
Year 2 PV (M)5,266.405,368.275,471.12
Year 3 PV (M)5,093.055,241.545,392.89
Year 4 PV (M)4,924.885,117.255,315.21
Year 5 PV (M)4,761.734,995.365,238.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)151,730.94159,175.50166,909.44
Equity Value (M)177,222.07185,395.42193,876.65
Shares Outstanding (M)5,399.435,399.435,399.43
Fair Value$32.82$34.34$35.91
Upside / Downside330.74%350.60%371.22%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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