Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Incheon City Gas Co., Ltd. (034590.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52,546.09 - $88,625.92$68,321.21
Multi-Stage$102,492.41 - $112,765.17$107,528.98
Blended Fair Value$87,925.09
Current Price$26,050.00
Upside237.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.96%1,250.441,250.441,250.441,250.441,250.441,250.441,250.441,250.441,250.441,250.44
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%9.99%
Dividend Yield--5.12%4.93%4.72%4.70%4.85%5.32%4.28%4.18%4.14%4.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,059.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,152.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,907.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,611.942,257.461,354.48
Cash Retained (M)12,907.2212,907.2212,907.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,611.94-2,257.46-1,354.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,295.2710,649.7511,552.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.124.124.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,255.832,584.542,803.69
LTM Dividend per Share1,250.441,250.441,250.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,255.832,584.542,803.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend3,506.273,834.984,054.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-0.33%0.67%1.67%
Fair Value$52,546.09$68,321.21$88,625.92
Upside / Downside101.71%162.27%240.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,059.7218,181.4518,304.0118,427.3918,551.6118,676.6619,236.96
Payout Ratio28.53%40.82%53.12%65.41%77.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,152.507,422.459,722.7612,053.7514,415.7216,808.9917,794.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-0.33%0.67%1.67%
Year 1 PV (M)6,911.566,980.907,050.24
Year 2 PV (M)8,430.388,600.398,772.10
Year 3 PV (M)9,732.1510,028.0210,329.82
Year 4 PV (M)10,838.0711,279.6011,734.48
Year 5 PV (M)11,767.5512,369.8112,996.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)374,645.82393,820.27413,771.88
Equity Value (M)422,325.53443,078.99464,655.01
Shares Outstanding (M)4.124.124.12
Fair Value$102,492.41$107,528.98$112,765.17
Upside / Downside293.44%312.78%332.88%

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