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Definitive Analysis

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Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (0293.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.05 - $56.55$43.22
Multi-Stage$52.49 - $57.62$55.01
Blended Fair Value$49.11
Current Price$10.70
Upside359.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.09%14.78%0.560.000.000.000.000.210.080.000.170.28
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%153.39%0.00%-100.00%-38.47%100.20%
Dividend Yield--5.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.06%0.84%0.00%1.96%2.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,060.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,900.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,160.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,812.002,382.501,429.50
Cash Retained (M)11,160.0011,160.0011,160.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,812.00-2,382.50-1,429.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,348.008,777.509,730.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,222.207,222.207,222.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.021.221.35
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.021.221.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.112.312.44
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate0.68%1.68%2.68%
Fair Value$33.05$43.22$56.55
Upside / Downside208.85%303.96%428.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,060.0019,380.2519,705.8820,036.9920,373.6520,715.9721,337.45
Payout Ratio41.45%51.16%60.87%70.58%80.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,900.009,914.6411,994.7414,141.9516,357.9318,644.3819,737.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate0.68%1.68%2.68%
Year 1 PV (M)9,165.259,256.299,347.32
Year 2 PV (M)10,250.0610,454.6910,661.34
Year 3 PV (M)11,171.5311,507.7311,850.61
Year 4 PV (M)11,945.3612,427.0712,923.20
Year 5 PV (M)12,585.9713,223.5613,886.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)323,984.51340,397.10357,468.20
Equity Value (M)379,102.69397,266.43416,137.39
Shares Outstanding (M)7,222.207,222.207,222.20
Fair Value$52.49$55.01$57.62
Upside / Downside390.57%414.08%438.50%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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