Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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CITIC Limited (0267.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$117.52 - $595.08$210.54
Multi-Stage$104.31 - $114.36$109.24
Blended Fair Value$159.89
Current Price$10.78
Upside1,383.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.60%-3.90%0.520.650.640.540.390.440.400.340.300.27
YoY Growth---19.76%2.45%18.70%39.74%-12.49%9.99%17.65%13.34%10.61%-65.30%
Dividend Yield--6.07%8.39%7.75%6.99%7.01%4.22%3.26%2.99%2.70%1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107,374.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35,599.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)71,774.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21,474.9013,421.818,053.09
Cash Retained (M)71,774.8971,774.8971,774.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-21,474.90-13,421.81-8,053.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)50,299.9958,353.0863,721.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29,090.1329,090.1329,090.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.732.012.19
LTM Dividend per Share1.221.221.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.732.012.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.953.233.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Fair Value$117.52$210.54$595.08
Upside / Downside990.13%1,853.09%5,420.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107,374.50112,461.87117,790.29123,371.17129,216.46135,338.71139,398.87
Payout Ratio33.15%44.52%55.89%67.26%78.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35,599.6150,072.1865,836.2682,981.73101,604.10121,804.84128,943.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Year 1 PV (M)46,635.2747,084.8247,534.36
Year 2 PV (M)57,108.5458,214.8659,331.79
Year 3 PV (M)67,040.3568,997.8470,993.07
Year 4 PV (M)76,450.9779,441.7282,519.37
Year 5 PV (M)85,359.9789,554.2793,911.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,701,717.822,834,471.022,972,392.11
Equity Value (M)3,034,312.923,177,764.533,326,682.56
Shares Outstanding (M)29,090.1329,090.1329,090.13
Fair Value$104.31$109.24$114.36
Upside / Downside867.60%913.34%960.83%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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