Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Uni-President China Holdings Ltd (0220.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.22 - $179.29$84.80
Multi-Stage$25.81 - $28.21$26.99
Blended Fair Value$55.90
Current Price$8.67
Upside544.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.33%26.17%0.430.340.420.380.320.240.140.030.040.01
YoY Growth--27.28%-18.61%11.41%18.50%30.79%68.99%416.88%-28.72%194.32%-68.82%
Dividend Yield--5.91%6.76%6.06%6.10%4.77%3.32%2.40%0.51%0.79%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,926.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,723.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)202.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)785.26490.78294.47
Cash Retained (M)202.94202.94202.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-785.26-490.78-294.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)-582.31-287.84-91.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,319.334,319.334,319.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.07-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.07-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.84
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Fair Value$38.22$84.80$179.29
Upside / Downside340.80%878.08%1,967.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,926.284,146.724,379.544,625.434,885.135,159.405,314.18
Payout Ratio94.83%93.86%92.90%91.93%90.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,723.333,892.314,068.534,252.274,443.814,643.464,915.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)3,616.583,651.153,685.72
Year 2 PV (M)3,512.523,579.993,648.10
Year 3 PV (M)3,411.083,509.833,610.48
Year 4 PV (M)3,312.203,440.673,572.85
Year 5 PV (M)3,215.833,372.493,535.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,429.5499,029.87103,807.76
Equity Value (M)111,497.75116,584.01121,860.12
Shares Outstanding (M)4,319.334,319.334,319.33
Fair Value$25.81$26.99$28.21
Upside / Downside197.74%211.32%225.41%

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