Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China Merchants China Direct Investments Limited (0133.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.19 - $14.88$12.45
Multi-Stage$13.85 - $15.20$14.51
Blended Fair Value$13.48
Current Price$1.88
Upside617.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.38%7.18%0.120.070.140.080.070.070.110.060.060.06
YoY Growth--71.43%-50.00%75.00%14.29%0.00%-36.36%83.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.63%7.14%13.33%6.67%5.83%5.34%9.09%3.61%4.03%3.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)202.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)173.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.5725.3615.21
Cash Retained (M)173.90173.90173.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.57-25.36-15.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)133.33148.55158.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)152.33152.33152.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.880.981.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.880.981.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.071.171.23
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Fair Value$10.19$12.45$14.88
Upside / Downside442.01%562.40%691.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)202.85204.04205.24206.45207.67208.89215.15
Payout Ratio14.27%29.41%44.56%59.71%74.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.9460.0291.46123.27155.45188.00199.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)54.0254.5655.10
Year 2 PV (M)74.0975.5977.10
Year 3 PV (M)89.8892.6195.40
Year 4 PV (M)102.01106.17110.46
Year 5 PV (M)111.04116.73122.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,679.331,765.351,854.87
Equity Value (M)2,110.372,211.022,315.58
Shares Outstanding (M)152.33152.33152.33
Fair Value$13.85$14.51$15.20
Upside / Downside636.90%672.04%708.55%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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