Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Sino Land Company Limited (0083.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.44 - $9.13$7.76
Multi-Stage$9.67 - $10.62$10.14
Blended Fair Value$8.95
Current Price$8.35
Upside7.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.110.050.360.060.150.100.270.140.25
YoY Growth---100.00%128.99%-86.44%500.60%-60.52%56.50%-64.18%87.85%-42.27%0.20%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1.37%0.50%3.07%0.48%1.54%0.71%2.09%1.11%1.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,421.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,809.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,612.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,684.201,052.63631.58
Cash Retained (M)6,612.006,612.006,612.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,684.20-1,052.63-631.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,927.805,559.385,980.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,594.358,594.358,594.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.650.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.650.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.44$7.76$9.13
Upside / Downside-22.90%-7.02%9.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,421.008,336.798,253.428,170.898,089.188,008.298,248.54
Payout Ratio21.48%35.19%48.89%62.59%76.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,809.002,933.354,035.035,114.396,171.757,207.467,629.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,641.372,668.332,695.28
Year 2 PV (M)3,271.743,338.853,406.64
Year 3 PV (M)3,734.143,849.623,967.46
Year 4 PV (M)4,057.624,225.794,399.13
Year 5 PV (M)4,266.884,489.074,720.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)65,158.6268,551.5972,084.44
Equity Value (M)83,130.3887,123.2491,273.37
Shares Outstanding (M)8,594.358,594.358,594.35
Fair Value$9.67$10.14$10.62
Upside / Downside15.84%21.40%27.19%

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