Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited (0081.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.39 - $101.16$94.80
Multi-Stage$16.28 - $17.82$17.04
Blended Fair Value$55.92
Current Price$1.62
Upside3,351.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.56%9.65%0.130.180.170.280.230.150.050.020.000.01
YoY Growth---29.99%10.08%-41.18%23.00%57.51%201.75%203.37%0.00%-100.00%-89.53%
Dividend Yield--7.76%8.10%5.59%8.80%6.60%3.05%2.15%0.45%0.00%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,820.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,108.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)712.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)364.10227.56136.54
Cash Retained (M)712.41712.41712.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-364.10-227.56-136.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)348.31484.84575.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,559.383,559.383,559.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate4.91%5.91%6.91%
Fair Value$33.39$94.80$101.16
Upside / Downside1,961.26%5,751.62%6,144.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,820.521,928.092,042.012,162.672,290.462,425.802,498.57
Payout Ratio60.87%66.69%72.52%78.35%84.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,108.111,285.921,480.881,694.391,927.962,183.222,311.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate4.91%5.91%6.91%
Year 1 PV (M)1,199.481,210.921,222.35
Year 2 PV (M)1,288.481,313.161,338.08
Year 3 PV (M)1,375.151,414.851,455.31
Year 4 PV (M)1,459.531,515.981,574.05
Year 5 PV (M)1,541.671,616.561,694.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,092.0353,573.9756,151.43
Equity Value (M)57,956.3460,645.4363,435.55
Shares Outstanding (M)3,559.383,559.383,559.38
Fair Value$16.28$17.04$17.82
Upside / Downside905.11%951.74%1,000.13%

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