Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

MTR Corporation Limited (0066.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.87 - $182.72$119.28
Multi-Stage$115.89 - $127.00$121.34
Blended Fair Value$120.31
Current Price$28.20
Upside326.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.63%4.86%1.281.221.381.151.091.070.212.472.980.92
YoY Growth--4.62%-11.29%19.50%5.24%2.39%419.05%-91.66%-17.02%221.99%16.26%
Dividend Yield--4.72%4.09%3.33%2.75%2.53%2.32%0.50%5.39%7.90%2.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,111.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,082.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,029.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,422.203,388.882,033.33
Cash Retained (M)6,029.006,029.006,029.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,422.20-3,388.88-2,033.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)606.802,640.133,995.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,218.006,218.006,218.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.420.64
LTM Dividend per Share3.393.393.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.420.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.493.824.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate2.10%3.10%4.10%
Fair Value$82.87$119.28$182.72
Upside / Downside193.85%322.96%547.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,111.0027,951.2728,817.5829,710.7330,631.5831,580.9632,528.39
Payout Ratio77.76%80.21%82.66%85.10%87.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,082.0022,419.5523,819.7725,285.2426,818.6728,422.8630,088.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate2.10%3.10%4.10%
Year 1 PV (M)20,867.2221,071.6021,275.98
Year 2 PV (M)20,635.3921,041.5921,451.75
Year 3 PV (M)20,388.2420,993.2021,610.01
Year 4 PV (M)20,127.3920,927.5921,751.42
Year 5 PV (M)19,854.3520,845.8921,876.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)618,719.29649,618.53681,740.12
Equity Value (M)720,591.87754,498.39789,705.93
Shares Outstanding (M)6,218.006,218.006,218.00
Fair Value$115.89$121.34$127.00
Upside / Downside310.95%330.29%350.37%

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