Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nexen Corporation (005720.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$105,703.97 - $258,383.89$242,143.54
Multi-Stage$37,259.06 - $40,801.98$38,997.90
Blended Fair Value$140,570.72
Current Price$6,330.00
Upside2,120.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.00%17.25%257.21227.46226.49211.80208.5681.00114.7578.3857.5757.57
YoY Growth--13.08%0.43%6.93%1.55%157.49%-29.41%46.40%36.16%0.00%9.94%
Dividend Yield--5.60%5.54%5.50%4.79%4.43%2.22%1.82%1.09%0.68%0.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)67,790.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,690.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)53,100.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,558.098,473.815,084.28
Cash Retained (M)53,100.1553,100.1553,100.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,558.09-8,473.81-5,084.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)39,542.0644,626.3448,015.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)52.1852.1852.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share757.84855.28920.24
LTM Dividend per Share281.54281.54281.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share757.84855.28920.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1,039.381,136.821,201.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$105,703.97$242,143.54$258,383.89
Upside / Downside1,569.89%3,725.33%3,981.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)67,790.4572,196.8376,889.6281,887.4587,210.1392,878.7995,665.15
Payout Ratio21.67%35.34%49.00%62.67%76.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,690.3025,511.5637,677.5351,317.2866,571.0183,590.9188,490.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)23,721.2723,946.1224,170.96
Year 2 PV (M)32,574.9833,195.4433,821.75
Year 3 PV (M)41,254.0142,438.2643,644.97
Year 4 PV (M)49,760.9451,674.6053,642.94
Year 5 PV (M)58,098.2960,904.4663,818.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,738,675.311,822,653.981,909,846.71
Equity Value (M)1,944,084.792,034,812.862,128,945.36
Shares Outstanding (M)52.1852.1852.18
Fair Value$37,259.06$38,997.90$40,801.98
Upside / Downside488.61%516.08%544.58%

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