Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Samhwa Crown & Closure Co., Ltd (004450.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$92,510.90 - $447,555.34$164,295.45
Multi-Stage$84,241.99 - $92,341.88$88,216.25
Blended Fair Value$126,255.85
Current Price$34,150.00
Upside269.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.69%-0.69%1,203.641,209.841,264.951,264.951,372.271,379.171,384.071,445.281,342.061,290.43
YoY Growth---0.51%-4.36%0.00%-7.82%-0.50%-0.35%-4.24%7.69%4.00%-0.01%
Dividend Yield--4.03%3.78%3.59%2.92%3.58%3.64%3.01%2.68%3.03%3.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,313.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,164.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,149.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,062.74664.21398.53
Cash Retained (M)3,149.303,149.303,149.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,062.74-664.21-398.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,086.562,485.092,750.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.801.801.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,158.131,379.331,526.80
LTM Dividend per Share1,201.331,201.331,201.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,158.131,379.331,526.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend2,359.462,580.662,728.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.67%4.67%5.67%
Fair Value$92,510.90$164,295.45$447,555.34
Upside / Downside170.90%381.10%1,210.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,313.695,561.995,821.896,093.946,378.696,676.766,877.06
Payout Ratio40.73%50.59%60.44%70.29%80.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,164.392,813.583,518.724,283.615,112.306,009.086,361.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.67%4.67%5.67%
Year 1 PV (M)2,621.132,646.412,671.69
Year 2 PV (M)3,053.803,113.003,172.77
Year 3 PV (M)3,463.343,564.533,667.67
Year 4 PV (M)3,850.624,001.354,156.46
Year 5 PV (M)4,216.494,423.804,639.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)134,570.35141,186.92148,061.22
Equity Value (M)151,775.72158,936.01166,369.00
Shares Outstanding (M)1.801.801.80
Fair Value$84,241.99$88,216.25$92,341.88
Upside / Downside146.68%158.32%170.40%

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