Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Industry

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Korea Petroleum Industries Company (004090.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38,036.35 - $202,780.76$75,261.02
Multi-Stage$21,142.13 - $23,138.33$22,121.93
Blended Fair Value$48,691.48
Current Price$13,790.00
Upside253.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.32%8.37%114.54105.00105.7876.9373.3773.37100.9675.8366.4451.15
YoY Growth--9.09%-0.74%37.50%4.85%0.00%-27.33%33.15%14.13%29.89%-0.27%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.84%1.03%0.46%0.55%1.71%1.63%1.52%1.18%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,025.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,662.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,363.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,605.131,628.20976.92
Cash Retained (M)11,363.6211,363.6211,363.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,605.13-1,628.20-976.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,758.509,735.4210,386.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.7712.7712.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share685.61762.08813.06
LTM Dividend per Share130.10130.10130.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share685.61762.08813.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend815.71892.18943.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38,036.35$75,261.02$202,780.76
Upside / Downside175.83%445.77%1,370.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,025.6413,872.3014,774.0015,734.3116,757.0417,846.2518,381.64
Payout Ratio12.76%28.21%43.66%59.10%74.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,662.013,913.056,449.709,299.5812,492.7016,061.6317,003.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,597.083,631.183,665.28
Year 2 PV (M)5,450.175,553.985,658.77
Year 3 PV (M)7,223.857,431.227,642.53
Year 4 PV (M)8,920.669,263.729,616.58
Year 5 PV (M)10,543.0311,052.2611,580.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)234,350.59245,669.81257,422.25
Equity Value (M)270,085.38282,602.17295,586.38
Shares Outstanding (M)12.7712.7712.77
Fair Value$21,142.13$22,121.93$23,138.33
Upside / Downside53.31%60.42%67.79%

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