Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shinhung Co., Ltd (004080.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9,268.14 - $19,770.48$13,184.37
Multi-Stage$7,098.74 - $7,734.65$7,411.02
Blended Fair Value$10,297.69
Current Price$13,900.00
Upside-25.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.86%8.12%267.96262.32241.68204.34123.22122.95123.50123.87123.30123.77
YoY Growth--2.15%8.54%18.27%65.84%0.22%-0.45%-0.30%0.47%-0.38%0.79%
Dividend Yield--1.82%1.82%1.65%1.22%1.03%1.34%1.24%1.11%1.13%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,573.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,568.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,005.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)914.65571.66342.99
Cash Retained (M)2,005.262,005.262,005.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-914.65-571.66-342.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,090.611,433.601,662.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.329.329.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share116.99153.78178.31
LTM Dividend per Share275.47275.47275.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share116.99153.78178.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend392.46429.25453.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9,268.14$13,184.37$19,770.48
Upside / Downside-33.32%-5.15%42.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,573.264,870.535,187.115,524.275,883.356,265.776,453.74
Payout Ratio56.15%62.92%69.69%76.46%83.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,568.013,064.643,614.984,223.924,896.745,639.195,969.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,760.692,786.862,813.03
Year 2 PV (M)2,933.482,989.363,045.76
Year 3 PV (M)3,087.683,176.323,266.63
Year 4 PV (M)3,224.513,348.513,476.06
Year 5 PV (M)3,345.123,506.693,674.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,825.1353,280.0055,828.82
Equity Value (M)66,176.6069,087.7372,104.74
Shares Outstanding (M)9.329.329.32
Fair Value$7,098.74$7,411.02$7,734.65
Upside / Downside-48.93%-46.68%-44.36%

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