Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Xuchang KETOP Testing Research Institute Co.,Ltd (003008.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.86 - $8.37$7.09
Multi-Stage$9.38 - $10.25$9.81
Blended Fair Value$8.45
Current Price$21.44
Upside-60.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.02%0.00%0.590.390.390.470.000.290.230.190.000.00
YoY Growth--51.00%0.00%-16.67%0.00%-100.00%25.00%20.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.84%2.22%1.87%2.29%0.00%0.87%0.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)87.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)67.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.4810.936.56
Cash Retained (M)19.8219.8219.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.48-10.93-6.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.348.9013.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.75102.75102.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.090.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.090.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.79
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-1.53%-0.53%0.47%
Fair Value$5.86$7.09$8.37
Upside / Downside-72.68%-66.92%-60.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)87.4286.9686.5086.0485.5885.1287.68
Payout Ratio77.32%79.86%82.39%84.93%87.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)67.6069.4471.2773.0774.8576.6181.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-1.53%-0.53%0.47%
Year 1 PV (M)62.5563.1863.82
Year 2 PV (M)57.8259.0060.19
Year 3 PV (M)53.3955.0356.71
Year 4 PV (M)49.2651.2953.39
Year 5 PV (M)45.4147.7650.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)695.73731.78769.31
Equity Value (M)964.151,008.051,053.63
Shares Outstanding (M)102.75102.75102.75
Fair Value$9.38$9.81$10.25
Upside / Downside-56.23%-54.24%-52.17%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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