Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co., Ltd. (003006.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.55 - $53.37$27.94
Multi-Stage$12.31 - $13.41$12.85
Blended Fair Value$20.39
Current Price$26.39
Upside-22.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS39.74%8.96%0.550.300.300.300.000.100.160.000.000.00
YoY Growth--83.41%-0.37%0.60%0.00%-100.00%-36.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.21%1.79%1.65%2.25%0.00%1.08%1.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)293.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)236.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.7436.7122.03
Cash Retained (M)57.4457.4457.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.74-36.71-22.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.3020.7335.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.43432.43432.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.050.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.050.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.63
WACC / Discount Rate8.77%8.77%8.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.55$27.94$53.37
Upside / Downside-33.48%5.86%102.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)293.72312.81333.14354.79377.85402.42414.49
Payout Ratio80.44%82.35%84.27%86.18%88.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)236.28257.61280.72305.75332.85362.17383.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.77%8.77%8.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)234.63236.85239.07
Year 2 PV (M)232.86237.30241.78
Year 3 PV (M)231.00237.63244.38
Year 4 PV (M)229.03237.84246.90
Year 5 PV (M)226.97237.94249.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,167.404,368.694,577.68
Equity Value (M)5,321.895,556.245,799.13
Shares Outstanding (M)432.43432.43432.43
Fair Value$12.31$12.85$13.41
Upside / Downside-53.36%-51.31%-49.18%

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