Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Capol International & Associatesco., Ltd (002949.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.35 - $85.24$79.88
Multi-Stage$53.23 - $58.39$55.76
Blended Fair Value$67.82
Current Price$15.80
Upside329.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.15%86.34%0.830.320.320.410.210.290.150.360.150.02
YoY Growth--158.38%0.57%-21.94%93.78%-27.94%96.46%-58.88%150.63%640.02%1,089.71%
Dividend Yield--5.10%2.65%2.19%2.67%1.03%1.72%0.51%2.41%0.96%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.8110.506.30
Cash Retained (M)15.4115.4115.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.81-10.50-6.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.394.919.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)196.04196.04196.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate0.88%0.88%0.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$72.35$79.88$85.24
Upside / Downside357.91%405.59%439.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.0389.4995.31101.50108.10115.12118.58
Payout Ratio81.66%83.33%85.00%86.66%88.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.6174.5781.0087.9695.48103.61109.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.88%0.88%0.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)73.2373.9274.61
Year 2 PV (M)78.1279.6081.11
Year 3 PV (M)83.3085.6988.13
Year 4 PV (M)88.7992.2195.72
Year 5 PV (M)94.6299.19103.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,016.4410,500.2311,002.55
Equity Value (M)10,434.4910,930.8511,446.05
Shares Outstanding (M)196.04196.04196.04
Fair Value$53.23$55.76$58.39
Upside / Downside236.87%252.90%269.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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