Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Bank of Qingdao Co., Ltd. (002948.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.17 - $163.33$143.20
Multi-Stage$20.55 - $22.49$21.50
Blended Fair Value$82.35
Current Price$4.76
Upside1,630.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.12%19.47%0.210.200.250.220.240.240.230.140.140.13
YoY Growth--2.06%-17.53%12.08%-8.03%-1.63%7.71%62.76%0.07%3.87%280.90%
Dividend Yield--4.92%6.12%7.51%5.54%5.07%5.25%3.09%2.30%2.30%2.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,801.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,212.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,588.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)960.21600.13360.08
Cash Retained (M)3,588.413,588.413,588.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-960.21-600.13-360.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,628.202,988.283,228.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,845.835,845.835,845.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.510.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.510.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.17$143.20$163.33
Upside / Downside849.01%2,908.33%3,331.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,801.065,113.135,445.485,799.446,176.406,577.876,775.20
Payout Ratio25.26%38.21%51.15%64.10%77.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,212.651,953.542,785.623,717.624,759.015,920.086,267.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,808.011,825.151,842.29
Year 2 PV (M)2,386.062,431.502,477.38
Year 3 PV (M)2,947.153,031.763,117.96
Year 4 PV (M)3,491.683,625.963,764.07
Year 5 PV (M)4,019.984,214.144,415.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)105,481.07110,575.84115,865.61
Equity Value (M)120,133.94125,704.35131,483.05
Shares Outstanding (M)5,845.835,845.835,845.83
Fair Value$20.55$21.50$22.49
Upside / Downside331.73%351.75%372.52%

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