Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Miwon Commercial Co., Ltd. (002840.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$179,161.95 - $380,099.95$254,370.54
Multi-Stage$131,338.98 - $143,420.72$137,270.69
Blended Fair Value$195,820.62
Current Price$150,000.00
Upside30.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.29%0.00%2,029.381,548.461,586.526,142.16701.96996.21384.8965.15168.9241.63
YoY Growth--31.06%-2.40%-74.17%775.00%-29.54%158.83%490.78%-61.43%305.80%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.09%0.86%0.93%3.49%0.37%1.74%0.72%0.18%0.46%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44,261.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,280.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,980.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,852.205,532.633,319.58
Cash Retained (M)34,980.7134,980.7134,980.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,852.20-5,532.63-3,319.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)26,128.5129,448.0831,661.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.644.644.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share5,636.316,352.396,829.78
LTM Dividend per Share2,001.902,001.902,001.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share5,636.316,352.396,829.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend7,638.208,354.298,831.67
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$179,161.95$254,370.54$380,099.95
Upside / Downside19.44%69.58%153.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44,261.0047,137.9750,201.9453,465.0656,940.2960,641.4162,460.65
Payout Ratio20.97%34.77%48.58%62.39%76.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,280.2916,391.6424,388.2633,355.1843,384.7754,577.2757,776.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14,761.8714,901.8015,041.72
Year 2 PV (M)19,779.6620,156.4020,536.70
Year 3 PV (M)24,362.4125,061.7625,774.38
Year 4 PV (M)28,537.3129,634.7730,763.59
Year 5 PV (M)32,330.0633,891.6135,512.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)489,083.35512,706.26537,233.28
Equity Value (M)608,854.66636,352.61664,862.60
Shares Outstanding (M)4.644.644.64
Fair Value$131,338.98$137,270.69$143,420.72
Upside / Downside-12.44%-8.49%-4.39%

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