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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd (002839.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.30 - $171.02$149.92
Multi-Stage$21.83 - $23.88$22.84
Blended Fair Value$86.38
Current Price$4.30
Upside1,908.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.80%71.83%0.390.360.300.220.170.120.080.080.090.09
YoY Growth--7.74%21.48%34.95%28.65%38.63%54.89%-3.56%-5.54%-6.94%5,326.39%
Dividend Yield--9.13%8.94%6.62%4.22%3.68%2.69%1.34%1.17%0.36%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,964.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)866.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,098.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)392.93245.58147.35
Cash Retained (M)1,098.481,098.481,098.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-392.93-245.58-147.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)705.55852.90951.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,284.662,284.662,284.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.750.80
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$47.30$149.92$171.02
Upside / Downside999.93%3,386.53%3,877.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,964.632,092.332,228.332,373.172,527.432,691.712,772.46
Payout Ratio44.09%53.27%62.45%71.63%80.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)866.151,114.581,391.641,700.022,042.602,422.542,564.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,031.551,041.321,051.10
Year 2 PV (M)1,192.031,214.731,237.65
Year 3 PV (M)1,347.691,386.381,425.80
Year 4 PV (M)1,498.651,556.281,615.56
Year 5 PV (M)1,645.001,724.451,806.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,162.9745,247.7647,412.33
Equity Value (M)49,877.8852,170.9254,549.39
Shares Outstanding (M)2,284.662,284.662,284.66
Fair Value$21.83$22.84$23.88
Upside / Downside407.71%431.05%455.27%

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