Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Guangdong New Grand Long Packing Co., Ltd. (002836.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.37 - $1.88$1.62
Multi-Stage$2.69 - $2.95$2.82
Blended Fair Value$2.22
Current Price$9.81
Upside-77.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.54%-6.13%0.100.340.070.220.070.360.180.070.130.16
YoY Growth---70.95%380.00%-66.67%200.00%-80.00%100.00%150.00%-46.67%-16.67%-14.29%
Dividend Yield--1.27%4.91%0.86%2.99%1.17%5.13%1.58%0.58%0.53%3.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.407.124.27
Cash Retained (M)1.221.221.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.40-7.12-4.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)-10.18-5.91-3.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)223.18223.18223.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.03-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.03-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate-4.82%-3.82%-2.82%
Fair Value$1.37$1.62$1.88
Upside / Downside-86.08%-83.45%-80.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.9954.8152.7250.7048.7646.9048.31
Payout Ratio97.86%96.29%94.72%93.15%91.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.7752.7849.9347.2344.6542.2144.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate-4.82%-3.82%-2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)47.7448.2448.74
Year 2 PV (M)40.8541.7142.58
Year 3 PV (M)34.9436.0637.19
Year 4 PV (M)29.8831.1632.48
Year 5 PV (M)25.5526.9228.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)421.80444.43468.02
Equity Value (M)600.77628.52657.36
Shares Outstanding (M)223.18223.18223.18
Fair Value$2.69$2.82$2.95
Upside / Downside-72.56%-71.29%-69.97%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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