Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Xiamen Jihong Technology Co., Ltd. (002803.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.67 - $36.42$21.97
Multi-Stage$10.56 - $11.51$11.03
Blended Fair Value$16.50
Current Price$18.58
Upside-11.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.14%28.87%0.520.460.030.130.120.310.100.050.020.04
YoY Growth--14.20%1,304.95%-75.27%11.82%-61.77%201.66%87.65%213.30%-58.43%1.04%
Dividend Yield--4.14%2.61%0.15%0.89%0.39%1.91%0.69%0.37%0.11%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)262.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)132.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.5832.8619.72
Cash Retained (M)132.09132.09132.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.58-32.86-19.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.5199.23112.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.31397.31397.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.67$21.97$36.42
Upside / Downside-21.04%18.24%96.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)262.88279.97298.17317.55338.19360.17370.98
Payout Ratio49.75%57.80%65.85%73.90%81.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.79161.83196.35234.67277.15324.15343.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)146.66148.05149.44
Year 2 PV (M)161.27164.34167.44
Year 3 PV (M)174.68179.69184.80
Year 4 PV (M)186.96194.15201.54
Year 5 PV (M)198.17207.74217.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,326.493,487.163,653.98
Equity Value (M)4,194.224,381.134,574.88
Shares Outstanding (M)397.31397.31397.31
Fair Value$10.56$11.03$11.51
Upside / Downside-43.18%-40.65%-38.03%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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