Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanxi Yongdong Chemistry Industry Co., Ltd. (002753.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.02 - $41.26$38.67
Multi-Stage$7.69 - $8.41$8.04
Blended Fair Value$23.35
Current Price$6.93
Upside236.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.52%18.04%0.180.140.230.100.060.240.110.040.050.01
YoY Growth--26.80%-40.54%130.73%70.65%-74.64%119.24%178.40%-18.86%224.12%-56.53%
Dividend Yield--2.73%2.15%2.92%1.17%0.78%3.46%0.92%0.30%0.37%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.639.775.86
Cash Retained (M)7.797.797.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.63-9.77-5.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-7.84-1.981.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)376.78376.78376.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate5.87%5.87%5.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.02$38.67$41.26
Upside / Downside405.34%457.96%495.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78.1783.2588.6694.42100.56107.10110.31
Payout Ratio90.03%90.02%90.02%90.01%90.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.3774.9479.8184.9990.5196.39102.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.87%5.87%5.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)70.1270.7971.45
Year 2 PV (M)69.8771.2072.55
Year 3 PV (M)69.6271.6273.66
Year 4 PV (M)69.3772.0474.79
Year 5 PV (M)69.1372.4675.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,548.062,671.142,798.92
Equity Value (M)2,896.183,029.253,167.29
Shares Outstanding (M)376.78376.78376.78
Fair Value$7.69$8.04$8.41
Upside / Downside10.92%16.02%21.30%

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