Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Jiangxi Selon Industrial Co., Ltd. (002748.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.47 - $2.19$1.81
Multi-Stage$2.37 - $2.59$2.48
Blended Fair Value$2.15
Current Price$9.84
Upside-78.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.60%-4.00%0.150.060.060.100.170.150.220.150.040.10
YoY Growth--160.93%-8.75%-33.88%-41.87%12.58%-32.70%43.00%282.14%-59.36%-56.81%
Dividend Yield--2.00%0.69%0.58%0.76%3.13%2.14%2.47%1.20%0.18%0.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.625.393.23
Cash Retained (M)4.704.704.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.62-5.39-3.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.92-0.681.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)240.04240.04240.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.12%9.12%9.12%
Growth Rate-0.58%0.42%1.42%
Fair Value$1.47$1.81$2.19
Upside / Downside-85.03%-81.56%-77.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.1143.2943.4743.6643.8444.0345.35
Payout Ratio89.09%89.27%89.45%89.64%89.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.4038.6538.8939.1339.3839.6241.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.12%9.12%9.12%
Growth Rate-0.58%0.42%1.42%
Year 1 PV (M)35.0635.4235.77
Year 2 PV (M)32.0132.6633.31
Year 3 PV (M)29.2330.1231.03
Year 4 PV (M)26.6927.7828.90
Year 5 PV (M)24.3625.6126.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)421.66443.30465.82
Equity Value (M)569.02594.89621.74
Shares Outstanding (M)240.04240.04240.04
Fair Value$2.37$2.48$2.59
Upside / Downside-75.91%-74.81%-73.68%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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