Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.,Ltd. (002697.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.36 - $75.82$71.06
Multi-Stage$684.13 - $751.29$717.08
Blended Fair Value$394.07
Current Price$5.56
Upside6,987.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.53%14.80%0.130.450.010.160.090.050.020.020.000.04
YoY Growth---71.95%3,057.14%-91.14%81.61%64.15%152.38%10.53%2,461.06%-98.09%24.53%
Dividend Yield--2.37%9.05%0.23%3.29%1.47%0.55%0.37%0.34%0.01%0.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)513.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)156.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)357.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)102.7664.2338.54
Cash Retained (M)357.41357.41357.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-102.76-64.23-38.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)254.65293.18318.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,347.681,347.681,347.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate-41.15%-41.15%-41.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$64.36$71.06$75.82
Upside / Downside1,057.48%1,177.99%1,263.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)513.81547.21582.78620.66661.00703.96725.08
Payout Ratio30.44%42.35%54.26%66.18%78.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)156.40231.75316.23410.72516.16633.57670.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-41.15%-41.15%-41.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)390.07393.77397.47
Year 2 PV (M)895.89912.96930.18
Year 3 PV (M)1,958.482,014.702,071.99
Year 4 PV (M)4,142.644,301.954,465.82
Year 5 PV (M)8,558.738,972.119,401.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)906,036.17949,798.06995,234.81
Equity Value (M)921,981.98966,393.551,012,501.59
Shares Outstanding (M)1,347.681,347.681,347.68
Fair Value$684.13$717.08$751.29
Upside / Downside12,204.41%12,797.11%13,412.45%

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