Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd. (002608.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$148.96 - $186.63$174.90
Multi-Stage$31.65 - $34.67$33.13
Blended Fair Value$104.02
Current Price$8.05
Upside1,192.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.48%20.62%0.390.420.330.470.280.230.190.190.630.56
YoY Growth---5.75%27.43%-30.35%67.70%22.73%18.66%2.84%-70.40%12.94%828.53%
Dividend Yield--5.15%5.23%5.32%8.21%3.86%3.51%1.91%2.14%4.55%15.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,545.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)770.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,775.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)709.05443.16265.89
Cash Retained (M)2,775.012,775.012,775.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-709.05-443.16-265.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,065.962,331.862,509.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,777.913,777.913,777.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.620.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.620.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.750.820.87
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$148.96$174.90$186.63
Upside / Downside1,750.37%2,072.64%2,218.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,545.263,775.704,021.124,282.504,560.864,857.325,003.03
Payout Ratio21.73%35.38%49.04%62.69%76.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)770.251,335.881,971.782,684.723,482.004,371.584,627.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,248.051,259.881,271.71
Year 2 PV (M)1,721.051,753.831,786.92
Year 3 PV (M)2,189.272,252.122,316.15
Year 4 PV (M)2,652.752,754.772,859.70
Year 5 PV (M)3,111.533,261.823,417.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)108,647.87113,895.60119,344.18
Equity Value (M)119,570.53125,178.02130,996.53
Shares Outstanding (M)3,777.913,777.913,777.91
Fair Value$31.65$33.13$34.67
Upside / Downside293.17%311.60%330.74%

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