Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd (002545.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.66 - $47.55$27.13
Multi-Stage$12.09 - $13.21$12.64
Blended Fair Value$19.88
Current Price$14.00
Upside42.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.86%26.70%0.220.410.250.100.080.120.050.020.040.32
YoY Growth---45.62%64.00%150.00%25.00%-34.29%134.62%145.21%-43.80%-88.39%1,450.00%
Dividend Yield--2.99%5.84%2.93%0.88%1.10%1.72%0.66%0.24%0.37%4.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)926.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)257.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)668.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)185.20115.7569.45
Cash Retained (M)668.19668.19668.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-185.20-115.75-69.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)482.99552.44598.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,243.961,243.961,243.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.66$27.13$47.55
Upside / Downside26.17%93.79%239.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)926.00986.191,050.291,118.561,191.271,268.701,306.76
Payout Ratio27.84%40.27%52.70%65.14%77.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)257.81397.16553.55728.59924.041,141.831,208.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)360.76364.18367.60
Year 2 PV (M)456.73465.43474.21
Year 3 PV (M)546.05561.73577.70
Year 4 PV (M)629.06653.25678.14
Year 5 PV (M)706.08740.18775.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,340.8012,936.8713,555.75
Equity Value (M)15,039.4815,721.6316,428.98
Shares Outstanding (M)1,243.961,243.961,243.96
Fair Value$12.09$12.64$13.21
Upside / Downside-13.64%-9.73%-5.66%

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