Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Anhui Sierte Fertilizer industry Ltd. ,company (002538.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.66 - $13.78$8.42
Multi-Stage$4.27 - $4.65$4.46
Blended Fair Value$6.44
Current Price$5.27
Upside22.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.57%10.22%0.240.270.380.200.070.090.180.120.130.10
YoY Growth---10.03%-29.41%92.28%180.89%-25.71%-48.41%46.94%-4.56%33.16%7.75%
Dividend Yield--3.99%5.28%4.78%2.26%1.25%1.89%2.95%1.54%1.26%0.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)222.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)94.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.4427.7816.67
Cash Retained (M)94.3294.3294.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.44-27.78-16.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.8866.5577.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)853.57853.57853.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.14%9.14%9.14%
Growth Rate5.26%6.26%7.26%
Fair Value$5.66$8.42$13.78
Upside / Downside7.36%59.78%161.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)222.20236.12250.91266.63283.34301.09310.12
Payout Ratio57.55%64.04%70.53%77.02%83.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.88151.22176.97205.36236.62270.98286.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.14%9.14%9.14%
Growth Rate5.26%6.26%7.26%
Year 1 PV (M)137.25138.55139.86
Year 2 PV (M)145.79148.57151.38
Year 3 PV (M)153.55157.97162.47
Year 4 PV (M)160.58166.77173.14
Year 5 PV (M)166.92175.00183.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,878.263,017.603,162.28
Equity Value (M)3,642.363,804.473,972.53
Shares Outstanding (M)853.57853.57853.57
Fair Value$4.27$4.46$4.65
Upside / Downside-19.03%-15.42%-11.69%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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